640,000 Young Israelis Hold Balancing Power in Tuesday Knesset Vote

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, with a demographic shift poised to influence the balance of power in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) estimates that 640,000 individuals aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choices could decide up to 12 seats in the upcoming government.

The weight of this new voting bloc is a central focus of current political analysis. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old resident of Ramat Hasharon, recently told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that she intends to vote to change the country's future. She spoke before an event in a Tel Aviv auditorium where leading politicians addressed more than 1,000 first-time voters, many of whom are in pre-military programs. Chernyvsky, currently in an army preparation program in the Negev, blames the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the nation's current state. She has not finalized her choice but expects to support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties belong to the opposition change bloc, which aims to remove Netanyahu from power. He has held the office since 2009, except for a brief period in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, who heads the education policy program at the IDI, explained that the institute co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. She noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. Hoffman stated that if turnout levels remain high, as prior research suggests, this group will make a tangible difference in the results.

Data collected in May by the IDI indicates strong intent to participate among prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters. Between 80% and 95% of respondents said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated they intend to vote. A separate poll conducted by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with an additional 19% thinking they would. For comparison, youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election stood at 47%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

Survey data reveals that national security and the cost of living are the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab young voters. Hoffman said these priorities reflect the experiences of this generation, which attended junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. She described the group as worried about their future.

Determining the exact political leanings of this group remains complex. Hoffman observed that Jewish Israeli voters of all ages have moved rightward over the last two decades. However, she noted that military service can reverse this trend by prompting questions about war and its goals. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same survey, 16% said they would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman added that mock elections in high schools showed most students supporting Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support for Likud appeared, but little support was recorded for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.

Individual voters illustrate the diversity of these preferences. Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to support the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. Although he disagrees with Smotrich's approach in Gaza, he supports his policies in the West Bank, stating that Israel needs to be strong and secure. His program-mate, Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc. Shiloh wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.

A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M due to IDF anonymity rules, cited universal service as his top priority. He plans to vote for the Democrats largely for economic reasons, pointing to the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that will close resource gaps in Arab communities and address crime. He is urging friends to vote and said that regardless of the outcome, he will not leave the country because it is his home.