Neither Leader Reaches 61 Seats in Israel's Vote

Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot secured the 61 seats needed for a majority in Israel's 120-seat Knesset, leaving coalition talks open after the election. Netanyahu's Likud drew the most votes, but his bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties fell short. Opposition parties hold more seats than his coalition, yet Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, cannot reach 61 without support from predominantly Arab parties, which he and his allies repeatedly ruled out during the campaign.

In the next few days, Israel's president will consult the leaders of every party elected to parliament. Each party recommends the leader it believes should get the first shot at forming a coalition. The president is not bound to pick the leader of the largest party and instead selects the candidate considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition. That person then has 28 days to secure backing from at least 61 lawmakers, with an extension of up to 14 days available. If that fails, the president can offer another candidate the task.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the largest number of recommendations from newly elected lawmakers, but recommendations do not guarantee a government. Arab-led parties represent 21% of Israel's population, who generally refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Eisenkot has said their positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Some of those parties have declined to endorse the goal of eliminating Hamas or to call it a terrorist organization. Netanyahu's traditional coalition partners likewise lack the seats to return him to power.

One path under discussion is a unity government pairing Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Israeli and some U.S. media outlets have reported that President Trump favors such an outcome, though NPR has not independently confirmed those reports. Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu, and the two would have to settle who becomes prime minister and whether the post rotates. Another option is an Eisenkot government supported from outside by Arab parties, which together would command more than 67 seats, but Eisenkot has rejected that arrangement. A third possibility is another election, which Israel's president has urged leaders to avoid after a turnout that was the highest in decades.

Defections offer little relief under the current count. Netanyahu would need roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc; Eisenkot would need about 13 if he continues to exclude Arab parties. Meanwhile, Eisenkot's bloc is weighing a bid to replace the Knesset speaker and to advance a state commission of inquiry into the political and security failures that preceded the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Netanyahu said on election night that Israel still had to complete its mission against Iran, while Eisenkot warned him not to use "Israel's security for your political needs." Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, said Netanyahu has an incentive to renew fighting while government talks continue: "When you have an emergency in Israel, the pressure on Eisenkot to enter some sort of unity government would obviously mount." Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv contributed to this story.

The president's consultations with party leaders begin in the coming days.