Haredi Split May Decide Israel's Next Government

Israel’s political establishment faces a fractured path to power as the election concludes. Internal assessments suggest that Agudat Yisrael, a small Haredi party, holds the potential to sway the outcome by supporting a government led by the opposition. This move would represent a shift away from the current coalition, relying instead on budgetary agreements to secure stability.

Yitzhak Goldknopf leads the three-seat Agudat Yisrael faction. Reports indicate the party is exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot, a former defense minister and leader of the Change Bloc. These talks emerged from internal friction within the United Torah Judaism alliance. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition, while the rival Degel Hatorah faction showed a lack of confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando further complicated these ties by questioning the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

However, Goldknopf faces resistance from his own voter base. His supporters identify largely with the right wing of Israeli politics. Political analysts warn that any visible support for a Change Bloc government could drive some voters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic makes the Agudat Yisrael decision a high-stakes calculation for any future coalition leader.

If neither bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett may become the deciding factor. Circles in the political establishment discuss the possibility of Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government. This scenario is considered remote but plausible because Bennett’s background on the right allows him to bridge the gap more easily than other opposition leaders.

Bennett would need to shift his base of support to make such a move, a challenge complicated by the makeup of his current party. Avigdor Liberman, who previously served as defense minister under Netanyahu, has also been mentioned as a potential bridge figure. Assessments suggest Liberman is currently unlikely to make this move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

The central issue in upcoming coalition negotiations will be which leader is willing to move their political base to form a viable government. These scenarios remain political assessments rather than finalized agreements. The final government structure will depend on whether Agudat Yisrael aligns with the opposition or if Bennett decides to join the current leadership.