Netanyahu's bloc wins 53 seats but fails to secure Israeli majority

Roughly 2.38 million Israelis voted for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition on Tuesday, yet the bloc fell short of the parliamentary majority required to form a government. The polls, held on October 27, marked one of the highest voter turnouts in the country’s history. Neither side secured the 61 seats needed to rule unilaterally.

Netanyahu’s camp, led by his Likud party, claimed 53 seats. This gave them a five-seat advantage over the main opposition alliance, which received votes from approximately 2.21 million citizens. Arab parties achieved a record 19 seats but are positioned to observe the upcoming coalition negotiations rather than dictate the terms.

The election focused on internal domestic disputes rather than the ongoing war in Gaza or the occupation of the West Bank. Key issues included the power of the courts, military service exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox minority, and investigations into the government's response to the October 7, 2023 attacks. Analysts noted that both alliances held similar views on the conflict, making it a less decisive factor for voters.

Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, a leading Israeli sociologist, said that many Israelis are aware of the devastation in Gaza but do not connect that knowledge to the political implications. He described a mechanism of denial where the facts are known, but their meaning is obscured. He noted that ordinary people can support a political order that causes suffering elsewhere while considering themselves decent.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, characterized Netanyahu’s base as a tribe that views the prime minister as always correct. Bregman stated that this group, which has supported Netanyahu for a cumulative 19 years, sees the left as a primary enemy after the Arabs. He argued that this demographic would vote for the prime minister regardless of his faults.

Roi Zur, an expert on voter behavior at Essex University, said the vote was driven by a fear that the opposition would be weaker on security. Zur explained that Netanyahu successfully cultivated the belief that he is the only leader strong enough to handle the post-October 7 situation. For many supporters, the election was a choice between competing claims to political legitimacy and the future of Jewish identity.

The deadlock leaves the parliament unable to act immediately. The results reflect a split electorate divided over judicial reforms and security policies. The lack of a clear majority means negotiations will determine the next government structure, while the broader questions of war and occupation remain outside the immediate scope of the ballot.