Democrats Hold 8.2-Point Edge as Trump Swaps Rallies for Phone Calls

Democrats lead Republicans 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent in RealClearPolling's national average, an 8.2-point margin four days before voters cast their ballots. The gap sits alongside economic dissatisfaction that pollsters say is weighing on the Republican position.

Charles Franklin, who directs the Marquette Law School Poll, said declining presidential approval ratings and economic concerns are alarming Republicans. The Marquette survey, conducted in Wisconsin from Oct. 14 to Oct. 22 and released Oct. 28, put Trump's approval at 37 percent against 61 percent disapproval.

On household finances, 16 percent of Marquette respondents said they are better off than a year ago, 42 percent said worse off, and 42 percent said about the same. "Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote," Franklin said, calling that an edge tied to "Republican disappointment in current national conditions."

State-level surveys point the same direction. A CNN poll released Thursday showed Democrat James Talarico at 49 percent to Republican Ken Paxton's 43 percent in Texas, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 49 percent to Republican Mike Rogers's 42 percent in Michigan. Franklin cautioned that "polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes," and that close races could shift on small movements in voter preference.

Alaska's Senate contest carries a separate complication. Two candidates are named Dan Sullivan: the incumbent Republican senator and an independent who is also registered as a Republican. Trump called the overlap "a scheme" and "total election fraud," while the Justice Department has taken legal action and Democrat Mary Peltola rejected the accusations, calling the dispute a diversion from affordability concerns. Alan Fisher, Al Jazeera's US correspondent, said that if the seat decides Senate control, the outcome could be unresolved "for several days, maybe even weeks after November 3."

Campaign travel plans shifted this week. Trump dropped Saturday and Sunday appearances in Salina, Kansas, and Dubuque, Iowa, in favor of telephone rallies reaching nearly 20 states. "Voters across the country want to hear from President Trump before Election Day," Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said, describing a "72-hour sprint." Trump, asked about the cancellations, said, "I don't feel I have to go to Kansas," and "I feel perfect" when a Reuters reporter raised travel fatigue.

Friday's schedule pairs Trump at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida, at 23:00 GMT with Vice President Kamala Harris at the Fulton County Democratic Party's Fulton Forward dinner in Atlanta. Vice President JD Vance also scrapped a planned news conference in St Cloud, Minnesota, with the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, with no reason given.

Vance campaigned Thursday in Weatherford, Texas, near Dallas, with Paxton, saying "Texas ain't surrendering. Texas is not becoming California." Obama spoke in Georgia on Wednesday for Senator Jon Ossoff, whose Republican opponent Mike Collins called the visit "the desperation of Jon Ossoff because he knows he's losing." Harris joined Ossoff at Clark Atlanta University on Thursday and also campaigned in Macon.