College Students Predict Close Midterms in Key Battleground States

Students at Saint Leo University in Florida have finalized their predictions for the Nov. 3 midterm elections, focusing on seven states where polling indicates tight margins. The class, POL 304: Campaigns and Elections, meets every two years to align with election cycles. Instructor Frank Orlando tasked the students with analyzing voter demographics, electoral history, and emerging political trends to move beyond casual observation and into the role of trained analysts.

The student analysts divided into teams to study specific contests. In Florida, sophomore Evie Paget predicts Republicans will retain both the Senate and governor’s offices. She expects Sen. Ashley Moody to defeat state Rep. Angie Nixon and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds to beat former Rep. David Jolly. Paget noted that Nixon’s progressive stance surprised her, attributing the nomination to the mobilization of younger voters, but she believes Nixon will not win the general election.

In Texas, junior Elijah Penn sees a dead heat in the Senate race between state Rep. James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Penn observed that while the state has a younger population, historical voting patterns suggest suburban and border counties will drive the outcome. He expressed surprise at how close the race has become given the candidates’ ideological positions. In Michigan, junior Ethan Parks now predicts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will defeat former Rep. Mike Rogers. Parks cited the Middle East conflict as a major concern for younger voters, noting that independents may break from their usual party loyalties.

Other states present different dynamics. Senior Angeliki Thomas tracks Ohio, where data centers have become a central campaign issue. She predicts Democrats Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton will narrowly defeat Republicans Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy. Thomas believes a recent attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother backfired for the Republican ticket. In Alaska, junior Amaria Solomon believes Democrat Mary Peltola may hold an edge over Sen. Dan Sullivan. Solomon pointed to Peltola’s focus on local issues and the high number of registered independents in the state.

In Iowa, junior Vincent Farides analyzes the Senate race between state Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson. The contest has received less national attention because both candidates focused on affordability and agriculture rather than controversy. Farides expects independent voters to decide the outcome, noting that a small margin in Iowa could determine Senate control. The students will test their forecasts at a campus watch party beginning at 7 p.m. on Election Day. Orlando said the exercise helps students understand the mechanics of the political system and prepares them to engage with it in the future.