Four days separate Netanyahu from a possible Iran strike

Benjamin Netanyahu holds the power to order a new military strike on Iran as soon as November 3. This date marks the U.S. midterm elections. A coalition government will not be formed before then. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc won fewer seats than polls predicted. His side remains in the minority. He needs Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, to form a government. Eisenkot’s allies have not started formal talks yet. Avigdor Liberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu, will wait until Friday for final results. He must then choose between a deal with Arab parties, a deal with Netanyahu, or a second election. Any path requires weeks of negotiations. This timeline exceeds the four days remaining before the U.S. vote.

Netanyahu considered a renewed campaign against Tehran in recent weeks. He hesitated due to opposition from President Donald Trump and Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Trump opposed a strike before the U.S. midterms. Zamir opposed a strike before the Israeli election held yesterday. Both objections are now moot. Trump has hinted at resuming strikes after November 3. He endorsed Netanyahu and expressed a desire for Israel’s involvement. Zamir supports an attack if Iran is about to strike Israel or if Trump restarts the war with full U.S. backing. He also supports action if Iran rebuilds its threat capabilities quickly. This has not happened yet. Zamir opposed a pre-election strike to avoid disrupting voting with potential Iranian counterstrikes. He does not see Tehran as significantly closer to a nuclear or ballistic missile threat. U.S.-Israeli strikes in June and early 2026 set back those programs by years.

Trump is the main obstacle for Netanyahu. The Iran war is dragging down Trump and the Republican Party in polls. After the midterms, Trump will not seek a third term and may face fewer constraints. Most of his top advisers oppose a return to war. Some believe a few days of fighting might loosen Iran’s position. Others note that Iran has refused to crack since February. Advisers have warned that Tehran kept firing after a U.S. ceasefire. A new round could last longer than expected. Trump could instead continue economic pressure. He has swung between threats and retreats in August and October. This inconsistency may have weakened his threats in Iranian eyes. Alternatively, Iran might offer a real nuclear deal in response to his latest threats.

If Trump favors striking, the timing suits Netanyahu. A war focus could shift national attention away from coalition talks. It might be harder for Eisenkot’s camp to reach a deal with Arab parties while missiles fall. They might also be more open to dealing with Netanyahu. A strike would likely displace the October 7 attacks and haredi military service from public debate. Many Israelis would support acting alongside the U.S. to extract nuclear concessions. Netanyahu would need more than vague claims of new Iranian progress to justify a third conflict during coalition talks.