Alvarez returns to Kingdom Arena to reclaim WBC belt from Mbilli

The boxing world turns its attention to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Saturday for a title rematch of sorts. Canelo Alvarez and Christian Mbilli will collide for the WBC super middleweight championship.

The main event is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at the Kingdom Arena. DAZN will stream the card to pay-per-view subscribers. The bout is set to go the full 12 rounds.

Alvarez seeks to regain a belt he lost in late 2025. He dropped a unanimous decision to Terence Crawford on Sept. 13, 2025. Mbilli holds the interim title and won it in June 2025 with a first-round knockout of Maciej Sulecki. He retained that interim strap via a split-decision draw with Lester Martinez on the same day Crawford beat Alvarez.

Bookmakers list Alvarez as the clear favorite. His odds stand at -320, meaning a bettor must wager $320 to win $100. Mbilli sits at +230, offering a return of $230 on a $100 stake. The total rounds line is set at 11.5.

Alvarez, 36, has fought professionally since October 2005. He posted his first win with a fourth-round knockout of Abraham Gonzalez. His record now stands at 63 wins, three losses, and two draws. He has stopped opponents 39 times. However, six of his last eight victories came by unanimous decision.

Mbilli, 31, has never lost a professional fight. He began his career in February 2017 with a second-round knockout of Adrian Arenas. His record is 29 wins and one draw. He has secured 24 knockouts. He won his first world-level title in May 2018, taking the vacant WBA Youth middleweight crown by stopping Marcos Jesus Cornejo.

The Argentine champion has a long list of belt victories. He captured the vacant WBC Youth Intercontinental middleweight title and the WBC Francophone middleweight crown. In September 2021, he knocked out Ronny Landaeta for the WBC Continental Americas super middleweight championship. He defended that title eight times before winning the interim world strap.

SportsLine combat sports editor Josh Nagel has released his picks for the fight. He backs the Under 11.5 total rounds bet, which carries +250 odds. Nagel notes that four of Mbilli’s last six fights ended in six rounds or fewer. He also points to Alvarez’s 39 career early stops as supporting evidence for the under.

Nagel has had a profitable 2025 campaign. He correctly advised members to take Terence Crawford by decision against Alvarez in their September bout. That specific pick carried +220 odds. He also called Crawford as a +140 underdog in that same event. His overall combat sports picks for the year are up more than $2,500.

The analyst shares additional bets on the money line and method-of-victory props. One of his prop picks offers a return of nearly +2000. The full breakdown of his analysis is available to SportsLine subscribers ahead of Saturday’s main card.