Gas Prices Drive NJ Midterm Voting

Voters in Bergen County and across New Jersey are casting their ballots on Tuesday, November 3, with the cost of living as the primary factor influencing their choices. A surge in gas prices, driven by the ongoing war in Iran, has pushed the average cost of a gallon of gasoline to $4.15 in the state. This represents an increase of more than $1 per gallon compared to the same period last year, according to AAA New Jersey.

Diesel fuel costs have risen even more sharply, jumping from $3.55 to nearly $6.40 per gallon over the past year. These price hikes are straining household budgets and have become a central talking point for candidates in the midterm elections. The economic pressure is particularly acute in competitive districts, including the 7th District, which spans parts of northern and central New Jersey and is currently held by Republican Tom Kean Jr.

National analysts are watching the 7th District closely because control of the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to shift to the Democrats. Kean Jr. is facing Democrat Rebecca Bennett in a race that pundits view as a bellwether for the broader political climate. Meanwhile, in South Jersey, Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew is competing against Democrat Zack Mullock. Van Drew, who won his seat in 2024 by 17 percentage points, acknowledged that the war and rising oil prices are political liabilities for his party.

“The price of oil controls everything. It’s the inflation driver,” Van Drew said. He noted that his district’s agricultural economy has also been hurt by delayed work visas for farm workers, a concern he raised with the administration. “Still didn’t get as many people as they needed,” he said.

Polling data from Fairleigh Dickinson University shows that 90% of surveyed voters consider affordability important to their vote this year. The issue resonates across party lines, with 93% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans citing it as a priority. The FDU poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%, found that likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans for Congress by a 55 to 32 margin.

A separate Rutgers-Eagleton poll released last month revealed that more than 50% of respondents rated the national economy as poor, the lowest grade available. Another nearly 30% gave it a fair grade. Dan Cassino, executive director of the FDU Poll, stated that there is little good news for Republican candidates in this cycle. He pointed to the fact that only twice since the mid-1930s has the governing party gained House seats during a midterm election.

Tariffs on foreign goods have added to the financial burden on New Jersey families. A report from the National Taxpayers Union Foundation estimates that these tariffs have cost New Jersey households a combined $14 billion since early 2025. This amounts to $4,031 per household, with food and beverages being the hardest-hit category. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat representing the 5th District, cited a local candy company that is paying millions of dollars more in costs due to retaliatory tariffs from Canada.

Democrats are leveraging these economic concerns to argue that current policies are driving up prices. Rep. Donald Norcross, who represents the 1st District, described tariffs as a tax on consumers. “We pay for it,” Norcross said. With early voting having begun on October 24, turnout data suggests Democrats are mobilizing voters who feel the pinch of rising costs for fuel, housing, and health care insurance.